Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Mile Valuations

                As you know, there are tons of airlines and hotel chains, each with its own loyalty program. Additionally there are many flexible rewards programs out there (think Chase, American Express, Citi, etc). How do you value each of these points programs? 80,000 points sounds like a lot, but if they are denominated in Hilton Hhonor points, are they actually worth more than 30,000 Starpoints?
While there is a lot of math involved here, many of the assumptions are subjective. I will go over my reasoning for my valuations, but you will have to decide on your own. Your reasons for having different values may depend on your home airport, redemption values from your location, and travel goals.
                Conventional wisdom is that each mile = 2 cents. While this may be a good rule of thumb to live by at first, it is outdated info and may overvalue some airlines quite significantly. Additionally, there is a difference between redemption value and actual value of the miles. This comes from the fact that paid airline tickets/hotel stays earn points while rewards do not. Also there can be fuel surcharges, taxes, parking and resort fees that can be added to each reward redemption. All of these factors need to be considered, so a flat valuation per currency is not absolute but is more of a guideline to decide when to pursue different points strategies.
                I’m just going to throw this table out there now with all my valuations and go over some of my favorites one by one. Obviously there are many more, but these are some programs that I personally have experience with.
Program
Value per mile
Flights
US Flexperks
0.019
British Airways Avios
0.018
American Airlines Advantage Miles
0.018
United Mileage Plus
0.016
Delta Skymiles
0.013
Hotels
Starpoints
0.0225
Hyatt Gold
0.014
Marriot
0.009
Wyndham Rewards
0.008
IHG Points
0.006
Hilton Hhonors
0.005
Flexible Currencies
Chase Ultimate Rewards
0.018
American Express Membership Rewards
0.017
Citi ThankYou Points
0.017

USBank Flexperks
            I probably shouldn’t be starting with this one as it is one of the more complicated programs to evaluate, but it was at the top of the list so here goes. Flexperks can be redeemed to credit a paid airline flight in the following increments.

                This means that the theoretical maximum value obtained would be .02 per point ($400/20,000). The downside exists when you purchase a ticket for $401, which costs you 30,000 Flexpoints. This is a redemption value of .013 ($401/30,000), much less than optimal. The upside to Flexpoints though is that these purchases earn frequent flier miles as they are an actual paid flight that is credited back to you. Plus you have the added benefit of not having to scour the internet for reward flights, you can just book whatever you please (as long as the price is around the top of each tier). I personally value Flexpoints at .019 as I would never redeem them at a lower value. That’s what British Airways Avios are for.

British Airways Avios
            British Airways are infamous for their outrageously high taxes/fuel surcharges whenever flying through London. These fees can even make award flights more expensive than normal paid flights, effectively nullifying their value. But the upside exists with their travel partners. British Airways is part of the oneworld alliance, meaning you can use British Airways Avios to fly American Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Quantas, or any other oneworld partner. The appeal of Avios is that instead of a revenue based program like Southwest, their chart is dependent upon distance flown.


                If you are making a short hop (say between SLC and PHX) you only pay 4,500 miles one way (plus TSA fees of $5.60). That makes short hop travel incredibly inexpensive. You can even use this to your advantage if you live on the West Coast and want to fly to Hawaii. Hawaii is just within 3,000 miles of PHX, so you only pay 12,500 miles one way to get to Hawaii! In the end, Avios are a great way to get cheap domestic short hop flights. I conservatively value them at .018. Math:

Start
End
Miles
Surcharge?
BA Flight
Cheapest Flight
Mile value vs BA
Mile value vs Cheapest
Losing Miles
Losing CC Rewards
PHX
SEA (Seattle)
15,000
$11.20
$304.00
$304.00
$0.018
$0.019
1116
$6.08
PHX
BOS (Boston)
25,000
$11.20
$290.00
$290.00
$0.010
$0.011
2300
$5.80
PHX
SLC (Salt Lake City)
9,000
$11.20
$275.00
$275.00
$0.027
$0.029
600
$5.50
PHX
DTW (Detroit)
20,000
$11.20
$419.00
$419.00
$0.018
$0.020
1700
$8.38
PHX
CDG (Paris)
50,000
$654.00
$1,365.00
$1,102.00
$0.012
$0.008
5500
$27.30
PHX
HNL (Honolulu)
25,000
$11.20
$566.00
$557.00
$0.020
$0.021
2800
$11.32

Another great resource to see where you can fly on Avios by price is here:



American Airlines Aadvantage Miles
            Aadvantage miles are great for international travel, especially to Europe. During off-peak you can get a round trip ticket from the US to Europe for as little as 40,000 miles. This ticket normally costs from $1100 to $1400, giving you a redemption value of around .026. I conservatively value them at .018. Math:

Start
End
Miles
Surcharge?
AA Flight
Cheapest Flight
Mile value vs AA
Mile value vs Cheapest
Losing Miles
Losing CC Rewards
Depart
Return
PHX
SEA (Seattle)
25,000

$309.00
$304.00
$0.011
$0.012
2000
$6.18
10-Jun
17-Jun
PHX
BOS (Boston)
40,000

$399.00
$290.00
$0.009
$0.007
5000
$7.98
10-Jun
17-Jun
PHX
SLC (Salt Lake City)
25,000

$275.00
$275.00
$0.010
$0.011
1000
$5.50
10-Jun
17-Jun
PHX
DTW (Detroit)
40,000

$459.00
$419.00
$0.010
$0.010
4000
$9.18
10-Jun
17-Jun
PHX
CDG (Paris)
95,000
$89.10
$1,677.00
$1,532.00
$0.015
$0.015
10000
$33.54
10-Jun
17-Jun
PHX
CDG (Paris)
50,000
$89.10
$1,362.00
$1,210.00
$0.021
$0.022
10000
$27.24
14-Oct
21-Oct
PHX
CDG (Paris)
40,000
$53.80
$1,364.00
$1,102.00
$0.026
$0.026
10000
$27.28
20-Oct
27-Oct

Starwood Preferred Guest Starpoints
            Starwood Preferred Guest Starpoints are an interesting mix of hotel/flexible currency. They are primarily used at Starwood properties (Sheraton, Westin, etc). However they also have great transfer ratios when transferred to American Airlines at a 1.25:1 ratio. You can transfer 20,000 Starpoints to 25,000 American Aadvantage miles at anytime. Additionally, they occasionally run promos like most recently when 20,000 Starpoints would equal 30,000 Aadvantage miles. Hence the minimum value for Starpoints would be 1.25x my Aadvantage mile value of .018, giving us a value of .0225 per Starpoint. Of course the flexibility of Starpoints and their transfer programs makes them the most valuable currency, however they are also the most difficult to obtain. The only real way of obtaining them are through the SPG card through American Express.

Chase Ultimate Rewards Points
            Much like Starpoints and other flexible currencies, Chase UR are great because they can also be transferred to any of their 9 current transfer partners or converted to cash at a .01 ratio ($100 = 10,000 points). My favorites transfer partners are British Airways Avios and Hyatt Gold Passport points. Chase UR points ultimately derive their maximum value from the best transfer partner available. For me, this is the aforementioned British Airways Avios which I value at .018. Given their flexibility, I should probably value them higher than .018, but I like to be conservative in my approach so I will give them the same .018 value.

How should you value your miles?

            I can’t answer this for you, but you can answer it for yourself. When deciding on a points strategy it is imperative that you know the value of your chosen currency before jumping in. I wouldn’t want you to overvalue those 80,000 Hilton points (value of $400) when 30,000 Starpoints (value of $675) can be just as easily obtained with a different card.

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